During its CAEP/12 cycle (2019-2022), the ICAO CAEP developed SAF production projections in the short-term (out to 2025), and in the long term (2035 and 2050), in support of the assessment on the feasibility of a long-term aspirational goal for international aviation (LTAG).
These short-term projections have been updated and extended to 2030. From 2024 to 2027, the projections are based on 108 publicly-available production announcements from companies planning to produce alternative fuels. A forecasting approach was used to estimate the potential SAF production for years 2028, 2029, and 2030 due to the scarcity of additional announcements for those years.
A summary of the results is provided in the following table, which include SAF replacement rates based on the fuel burn forecasts used in the ICAO LTAG report. More details on the results and methodology used on this analysis are available here.
| Scenario | Implicit SAF Policy landscape | 2030 SAF production projection (kt/year) | SAF replacement ratio* |
Low
| No policy support for SAF | 3,059 | N.A. (not associated with an LTAG scenario) |
| Moderate | Some level of policy support for SAF, but lower than for road transportation biofuels | 7,608 | 2.19% (LTAG Scenario IS1) |
| High | Level-playing field between SAF and road transportation biofuels | 13,713 | 3.98% (LTAG Scenario IS2) |
| High+ | SAF-emphasis in policies | 16,973 | 5.01% (LTAG Scenario IS3)
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