ICAO Statistics Programme
One on-the-job training session on statistics was conducted at ICAO Headquarters to support the implementation of the recommendations of the Tenth Session of the Statistics Division meeting. It provided practical experience in applying statistical methods and filling in statistical forms. Emphasis was placed on the newly implemented fuel data collection by air carrier (ICAO statistical form M) that enables the measurement of fuel efficiency progress.
The Air Transport Committee (ATC), at its 200th Session, agreed to rename the Statistics Panel (STAP) to the Aviation Data and Analysis Panel (ADAP). New Terms of Reference of the panel (State Letter SP 67/1-13/78 refers), which are linked to relevant provisions of Resolution A38-14, Consolidated Statement of Continuing ICAO Policies in the Air Transport Field, were endorsed by the ATC and a comprehensive review of the panel membership was approved.
Monthly monitor sheets have been developed for internal and external users and are posted every month on the ICAO website. They provide snapshots and analyses of aviation indicators at a regional or global level. New indicators and analyses have been posted on the ICAO website.
Phase 1 of the ICAO CO2 Reporting and Analysis System (ICORAS) was completed, in line with Assembly Resolution A37-19. The purpose of this measurement tool is to enable the reporting of international aviation CO2 emissions to the UNFCCC and to assess progress in reaching global environmental aspirational goals.
ICAO Statistical Online Platform
The statistical online platform, ICAO DATA+, which was updated and enhanced in 2012 with a global comparative aviation data tool, has been presented at several international events, such as statistical workshops, symposia and other air transport events. Six modules of the user-friendly ICAO DATA+ are available: air carrier traffic; traffic by flight stage; air carrier finances; airport traffic; on-flight origin and destination; and air carrier fleet and personnel. ICAO DATA+ may be consulted online.
Forecasting Activities
A circular entitled Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 and trends to 2040 (Cir 333) was published in March 2013. It summarizes the latest and most expansive passenger and cargo traffic forecasts ever produced by ICAO. Designed to help regulators and the aviation industry respond to evolving passenger and shipper needs over the next 20 years or so, the publication also includes forecasts of corresponding aircraft movements and extended global forecasts of passenger and cargo traffic to 2040 in support of greenhouse gas analyses.
This unique document benefits from an expanded system of routes and more sophisticated econometrics techniques, the worldwide expertise of ICAO and the extensive data provided by ICAO’s Member States; in short, the most advanced techniques and the timeliest information. It further contains various market trends and analyses, taking into account economic growth, technological change, market liberalization, the growth of low-cost carriers, airport congestion and oil prices, among others. Finally, the circular examines the major factors that promote or impede the growth of civil aviation and how they influence the resulting forecasts.
Relevant provisions of the Consolidated Statement of Continuing ICAO Policies in the Air Transport Field adopted by the 38th Session of the Assembly (A38-14) call on the Council to “develop one single set of long-term forecast, from which customized or more detailed forecasts can be produced for various purposes, such as air navigation system planning and environmental analysis”. Preparations to generate such a forecast by the Aviation Data and Analysis Panel (ADAP) have begun, including the invitation of CAEP experts to participate in a multidisciplinary sub-group of ADAP to consider the development of an appropriate set of aviation data, including forecasts.
The Africa-Indian Ocean Traffic Forecasting Group (AFI TFG), at its seventh meeting, generated medium- and long-term traffic and aircraft movement forecasts for major route groups to, from and within the Africa-Indian Ocean Area. Aircraft movement forecasts at city-pair level for the 25 city-pairs for each route group were developed as were two separate analyses of FIR traffic data for selected airspaces controlled by ASECNA as well as Seychelles for the year 2012, including various peak period parameters. In addition, yearly traffic for the period 2000-2012 and monthly traffic for the year 2012 for the Dar es Salaam FIR were analysed by the Group. These forecasts and analyses, contained in the Report of the AFI TFG Seventh Meeting, are expected to be used primarily by ICAO Member States concerned, the air navigation services providers in the Africa-Indian Ocean markets and the AFI Air Navigation Planning and Implementation Regional Group (APIRG) in their planning activities of air navigation services.
Economic Analysis
Studies conducted on regional differences in international airline operating economics augmented an already exceptional source of data and information for various essential tasks, including analysis of airline operating economics, evaluation of the impact of regulatory change, and environmental planning. They also formed the basis for an analysis delivered to the IATA Prorate Agency in order to calculate factors to prorate passenger revenues from interline journeys by the Agency. The deliverable generates revenues to ICAO.
